Scientists have created a climate model for Game of Thrones that finally explains why winter is ALWAYS coming

The extended seasons can supposedly be explained by a "tumbling" of the tilt of the spinning axis of the planet

As anyone who has watched the hit TV series Game of Thrones knows, winter is coming.

Some fans even have their own theories about what causes the strange extended seasons in that world of dragons, kings, queens and magic.


But scientists from the Universities of Bristol, Cardiff, and Southampton have gone one step further, creating a realistic climate model to simulate and explore the world of Game of Thrones .

The results show that The Wall, where the land of Westeros is guarded from the White Walkers, has a climate in winter similar to that of Lapland, whereas Casterly Rock, the stronghold of the scheming Lannisters, has a climate similar to that of Houston, Texas, and Changsha in China.

The world of Game of Thrones, showing the positions of the continents over the globe. Light blue represents the ocean, and the colour scale over the continents shows the height of the mountains and hills. This information is needed by the climate model because the surface characteristics such as height and reflectivity have a strong influence on atmospheric winds and temperature. (Image: Dan Lunt, University of Bristol)

The wind speeds and directions predicted by the climate model explain phenomena such as the dominance of the seas by the Iron Fleet, the likely attack plans of invading dragon hordes from Essos, and the trading routes between Westeros and the Free cities across the Narrow Sea.

The temperatures predicted by the climate model even indicate the likely hibernation zones of White Walkers during the summer.

The full results are published in a mock journal article (also available in Dothraki and High Valyrian), written by Samwell Tarly, who is studying to become a "Maester" in the Citadel in Oldtown in Westeros.

(a) 

shows how the "real" Earth orbits the Sun, with a constant angle of the tilt of the spinning axis, giving the familiar four seasons per year. (b) shows how the planet of the Game of Thrones may orbit the sun, giving extended seasons as the planet "tumbles" on it spinning axis, resulting in the same Hemisphere pointing towards the Sun throughout the year. (Image: Dan Lunt, University of Bristol)

Tarley states that the extended seasons can be explained by a "tumbling" of the tilt of the spinning axis of the planet as it orbits the Sun, in such a way that that the same Hemisphere always tilts towards the Sun.

He also models the global warming that would occur if concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere were to be doubled (due to increases in carbon dioxide and methane emissions from dragons and the excessive use of wildfire).

While the work is obviously intended as bit of fun, it does have a serious side, according to Professor Carrie Lear from Cardiff University.

Surface air temperature predicted by the climate model for winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The colour scale shows the temperature in degrees Celsius. The super-cold temperatures (less than -20oC) north of The Wall are similar to those of Lapland in Sweden/Finland. (Image: Dan Lunt, University of Bristol)

"Climate models simulate real physical processes which operate in both cooling and warming climates," she said.

"Scientists working on the SWEET projectt are using exciting novel techniques to reconstruct the climate of super-warm states of Earth's past.

"They are using this information to test state-of-the-art climate models under conditions of high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, similar to those expected by the end of this century."